Tag: Bayesian reasoning

^{Type
post

Author
Andrew McDiarmid

Date
May 9, 2026

Categories
Intelligent Design
Scientific Reasoning
Tagged
, animations, Bayesian reasoning, beauty, cabin, cosmos, errors, evidence, forest, genetic code, intelligent design, intentional design, logic of surprise, mathematics, matter, mind, order, Return of the God Hypothesis, software, The Story of Everything, universe, woods}

Using the Logic of Surprise to Infer Cosmic Design

_{Andrew McDiarmid
May 9, 2026

Intelligent Design, Scientific Reasoning

3}

On a hike, you stumble upon a seemingly abandoned cabin in the woods. When you walk in, you notice a steaming cup of tea sitting on the table. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Bruce Gordon

Date
March 27, 2026

Categories
Fine-tuning
Philosophy
Physics
Tagged
, Alex O’Connor, background knowledge, Bayesian formalism, Bayesian reasoning, belief, Big Bang, calculus, conditionalization, cosmology, deductive logic, Dutch book arguments, fine-tuning, Fisherian hypothesis testing, inference to the best explanation, John Maynard Keynes, logic, Mercury, naturalism, Nevin Climenhaga, null distributions, philosophy, precession, probability, propositions, psychological states, rejection regions, Sean Carroll, Socrates, subjective interpretation, syllogism, The Fine-Tuning Argument and Its Cultured Despisers (series)}

The Objective Probability of the Fine-Tuning Evidence

_{Bruce Gordon
March 27, 2026

Fine-tuning, Philosophy, Physics

11}

Science and philosophy aim to explain aspects of the world and of our experience, and both offer judgments about what is correct or incorrect. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Bruce Gordon

Date
March 17, 2026

Categories
Cosmology
Faith & Science
Philosophy
Tagged
, Alex O’Connor, assumptions, background information, Bayes factor, Bayes’s theorem, Bayesian confirmation theory, Bayesian reasoning, Clark Glymour, confidence, denominators, Dutch book argument, epistemic probabilities, evidence, fine-tuning, fine-tuning argument, general relativity, General Theory of Relativity, hypothesis, likelihood, likelihood ratio, marginal probability, mental state, Mercury, naturalism, Nevin Climenhaga, normalization factor, panpsychism, pantheism, posterior probability, prior probability, probabilities, psychological states, Sean Carroll, subjectivism, subjectivist Bayesianism, The Fine-Tuning Argument and Its Cultured Despisers (series), theism, universe}

Bayesian Methodology and the Fine-Tuning Argument

_{Bruce Gordon
March 17, 2026

Cosmology, Faith & Science, Philosophy

17}

To use Clark Glymour’s example, Einstein's general theory of relativity explained the anomalous precession of Mercury's perihelion. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Bruce Gordon

Date
February 27, 2026

Categories
Cosmology
Physics
Tagged
, Alex O’Connor, Andrew Loke, Bayesian reasoning, Boltzmann brains, Borde-Guth-Vilenkin theorem, chemistry, Chris Smeenk, cosmology, fine-tuning, fine-tuning argument, Ian Hacking, Ken Olum, Kenny Boyce, loop quantum cosmology, Luke Barnes, naturalism, nuclear physics, Philip Swenson, philosophers, Porter Williams, quantum mechanics, Roger White, Sean Carroll, stellar structure, The Fine-Tuning Argument and Its Cultured Despisers (series), theism}

Fine-Tuning and the Infinite Multiverse

_{Bruce Gordon
February 27, 2026

Cosmology, Physics

10}

An endless multiverse is a context in which every outcome occurs infinitely many times, rendering calculations of probability ill-defined. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Bruce Gordon

Date
February 18, 2026

Categories
Cosmology
Intelligent Design
Physics
Tagged
, Alex O’Connor, Bayesian reasoning, cosmology, fine-tuning, Hans Halvorson, Humean probabilities, likelihood ratio, Luke Barnes, mathematicians, metaphysics, monotheistic tradition, multiverse, Ned Hall, Nevin Climenhaga, personal beliefs, philosophers, philosophy, plausibility, podcasters, Presbyterians, priors, probability, psychological states, Robin Collins, Sean Carroll, spacetime, subjective inclinations, The Fine-Tuning Argument and Its Cultured Despisers (series), theism, theology, theoretical physicists, Thomas Bayes}

Framing a Finely Tuned Response to a Chorus of Critical “Carrollers”

_{Bruce Gordon
February 18, 2026

Cosmology, Intelligent Design, Physics

10}

Using Sean Carroll’s criticisms of the fine-tuning argument as a general guide, I propose to address objections to that argument. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Bruce Gordon

Date
February 13, 2026

Categories
Cosmology
Physics
Scientific Reasoning
Tagged
, Alex O’Connor, atheists, background theory, Bayesian reasoning, constants, cosmologists, cosmology, E. F. Hutton, Eric Hedin, fine-tuning, fingerprints, Friedrich Schleiermacher, galaxies, God of the gaps, gravity, Hans Halvorson, human centrality, Leonard Susskind, Luke Barnes, multiverse, philosophy of science, physicist, quantum mechanics, scientific reasoning, Sean Carroll, The Fine-Tuning Argument and Its Cultured Despisers (series), theism, theists, Victor Stenger}

The Fine-Tuning Argument and Its Cultured Despisers

_{Bruce Gordon
February 13, 2026

Cosmology, Physics, Scientific Reasoning

19}

Carroll is a prolific physicist and cosmologist who has been a prominent popularizer of science. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Andrew McDiarmid

Date
January 18, 2026

Categories
Engineering
Evolution
Intelligent Design
Tagged
, Bayesian reasoning, Charles Darwin, Darwin’s Black Box, egg, engineering, evolution, evolutionary theory, fertilization, forethought, goal, human reproduction, ID the Future, intelligent design, Irreducible Complexity, irreducibly complex systems, Jonathan McLatchie, Michael Behe, natural selection, podcast, purpose, seminal fluid, sexual reproduction, sperm, sperm capacitation}

Sexual Reproduction: Engineered for Success

_{Andrew McDiarmid
January 18, 2026

Engineering, Evolution, Intelligent Design

2}

I continue a three-part discussion with Dr. Jonathan McLatchie on why sex is the queen of problems for evolutionary theory. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan McLatchie

Date
January 14, 2026

Categories
Fine-tuning
Intelligent Design
Physics
Tagged
, Bayesian inference, Bayesian reasoning, causal ramification, chance, cosmic design, fine-tuning, fine-tuning arguments, improbability, intelligent design, Journal for General Philosophy of Science, King’s College London, multiverse, observation biases, philosophy, physical laws, physicists, physics, probability, Roberto Fumagalli, theism, universe}

New Peer-Reviewed Paper Defends Cosmic Fine-Tuning Argument

_{Jonathan McLatchie
January 14, 2026

Fine-tuning, Intelligent Design, Physics

11}

Fumagalli does not in the end state whether he himself lands on the multiverse hypothesis, cosmic design, or unknown physics as the best explanation. Read More ›

Person is looking for way out of psychedelic maze. A surreal labyrinth in magical forest. Human consciousness is at dead end, searching for solutions. Created with Generative AI

^{Type
post

Author
Denyse O’Leary

Date
November 29, 2025

Categories
Faith & Science
Neuroscience & Mind
Physics
Tagged
, Bayesian reasoning, Carl Sagan, Christopher Hitchens, consciousness, COSM 2025, George Gilder, immaterial reality, information, Jay W. Richards, life after death, Michael Egnor, Michael Shermer, neurosurgeons, quantum mechanics, Roger Penrose, technology, The Human Advantage}

Does Quantum Mechanics Help Make Sense of the Soul?

_{Denyse O’Leary
November 29, 2025

Faith & Science, Neuroscience & Mind, Physics

5}

Quantum mechanics seems to be the game-changer that Albert Einstein (1879–1955) feared it would be. It is certain to liven up discussions about the soul. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Denyse O’Leary

Date
November 28, 2025

Categories
Faith & Science
Neuroscience & Mind
Tagged
, Bayesian reasoning, body, brain, COSM 2025, David Deutsch, Francis Crick, materialist paradigm, Michael Egnor, Michael Shermer, mind, near-death experiences, neuroscience, neurosurgeons, soul}

Skeptic Michael Shermer’s Non-Vision of the Soul

_{Denyse O’Leary
November 28, 2025

Faith & Science, Neuroscience & Mind

5}

Responding to Michael Egnor at COSM 2025, he said that the soul is an explanation but not a good explanation for our relationship to our bodies. Read More ›