Tag: prior probability

Two dice bouncing with sparks. Concept for probability and random choice. Casino gambling and gaming.

^{Type
post

Author
Bruce Gordon

Date
May 19, 2026

Categories
Fine-tuning
Intelligent Design
Physics
Tagged
, Anthony Aguirre, Battle of the Big Bang, beans, Caltech, Christopher Hitchcock, cosmos, Daniel Díaz-Pachón, debates, dice, dimensional analysis, fine-tuning, Frank Wilczek, Fred Adams, general relativity, intelligent design, Justin Brierley, Luke Barnes, Martin Rees, Max Tegmark, normalizability, Ola Hössjer, parameter space, Phil Halper, physics, Planck scale, posterior probability, prior probability, probability, Robert Marks, Robin Collins, Standard Model, Stephen Meyer, theism}

Halper and Meyer on Inscrutable Dice and Cosmological Fine-Tuning

_{Bruce Gordon
May 19, 2026

Fine-tuning, Intelligent Design, Physics

15}

Phil Halper has argued against a position that no one holds, and his argument as a whole lays claim to the very capacity his objection denies. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Bruce Gordon

Date
March 17, 2026

Categories
Cosmology
Faith & Science
Philosophy
Tagged
, Alex O’Connor, assumptions, background information, Bayes factor, Bayes’s theorem, Bayesian confirmation theory, Bayesian reasoning, Clark Glymour, confidence, denominators, Dutch book argument, epistemic probabilities, evidence, fine-tuning, fine-tuning argument, general relativity, General Theory of Relativity, hypothesis, likelihood, likelihood ratio, marginal probability, mental state, Mercury, naturalism, Nevin Climenhaga, normalization factor, panpsychism, pantheism, posterior probability, prior probability, probabilities, psychological states, Sean Carroll, subjectivism, subjectivist Bayesianism, The Fine-Tuning Argument and Its Cultured Despisers (series), theism, universe}

Bayesian Methodology and the Fine-Tuning Argument

_{Bruce Gordon
March 17, 2026

Cosmology, Faith & Science, Philosophy

17}

To use Clark Glymour’s example, Einstein's general theory of relativity explained the anomalous precession of Mercury's perihelion. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan McLatchie

Date
February 11, 2025

Categories
Biology
Evolution
Fine-tuning
Intelligent Design
Tagged
, atheism, Bayes factor, Bayes’s theorem, Bayesian reasoning, biological design, environmental fitness, Evolution News, ID the Future, intelligent design, physical constants, plausibility, podcast, prior probability, probabilities, theism}

When Building Our Case for Intelligent Design, How Should We Think About Prior Probability?

_{Jonathan McLatchie
February 11, 2025

Biology, Evolution, Fine-tuning, Intelligent Design

4}

Bayes’s theorem is a tool for modeling our evaluation of evidences to appropriately apportion the confidence in our conclusions to the strength of the evidence. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan McLatchie

Date
July 18, 2024

Categories
Intelligent Design
Physical Sciences
Tagged
, biological systems, blood, capillaries, carbon dioxide, cells, chloroplasts, complex life, Fred Hoyle, hydrological cycle, ice, intelligent design, Michael Denton, minerals, oceans, photosynthesis, prior probability, surface tension, The Wonder of Water, viscosity, water}

The Properties of Water Point to Intelligent Design

_{Jonathan McLatchie
July 18, 2024

Intelligent Design, Physical Sciences

7}

It becomes increasingly difficult to deny what Fred Hoyle called a “common sense interpretation of the facts.” Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan McLatchie

Date
March 6, 2024

Categories
Cosmology
Faith & Science
Fine-tuning
Intelligent Design
Tagged
, Ann Gauger, Big Bang, Brian Miller, Casey Luskin, Christianity, Darwinism, David Berlinski, David Klinghoffer, Discovery Institute, education, environmental fitness, Günter Bechly, intelligent design, Ireland, Irreducible Complexity, Isaac Newton, Johannes Kepler, Michael Behe, Michael Denton, microbiology, motives, Phillip E. Johnson, prior probability, Stephen Meyer, Steve Fuller, William A. Dembski}

Are Proponents of ID Religiously Motivated, and Does It Matter?

_{Jonathan McLatchie
March 6, 2024

Cosmology, Faith & Science, Fine-tuning, Intelligent Design

9}

If Danaher wants to scrutinize the religious motives of ID proponents, we have to consider what such a line of attack would do to evolution. Read More ›

^{Type
post

Author
Jonathan McLatchie

Date
July 15, 2020

Categories
Intelligent Design
Mathematics
Philosophy
Tagged
, "God of the gaps", Alpha Centauri, Bayes’ Theorem, cosmic fine-tuning, hydrogen, information, intelligent design, Irreducible Complexity, jackpot, living cells, Lydia McGrew, prior probability, probability}

Applying Bayes’ Theorem to Biological Design

_{Jonathan McLatchie
July 15, 2020

Intelligent Design, Mathematics, Philosophy

4}

Suppose we want to know the odds that a particular individual won last week’s Mega Millions jackpot in the United States. Read More ›