Physicist Brian Miller had a very personal as well as enlightening interview with the YouTube channel Theos Theory. He poignantly describes being a freshman at MIT, looking up at the ceiling of his dorm room, and making a bargain with God. Many realizations followed, including that evolutionary logic is ultimately circular.
How, that is, do we know that natural selection can fully account for biological novelties? Says Dr. Miller,
I realized is that every evolutionary argument for the creative power of evolution is based on circular reasoning. What they do is they see similarities. They assume the similarities were produced by some common ancestor and that some blind undirected process made the change. But why do they believe the change is possible? Because they assume the change happened and they say because this change happened, we just we recognize that evolution must have power. But the more I looked at things like rarity of proteins, or the waiting times [problem], the more I came to recognize that the evidence is very clear that evolutionary processes always prevent large scale change, they never drive it, and that things like the origin of life or the origin of complex organisms is a mathematical impossibility. So that’s kind of where that led me in that direction.
Of course, there’s more to it than just that, but I thought that was a neat crystallization of the insight: